UFC Fight Night 268 Predictions (28-02-2026)

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh (also known as UFC Fight Night 268) is an upcoming mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship that will take place on February 28, 2026, at the Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico.

The event will mark the promotion’s eighth visit to Mexico City and first since UFC on ESPN: Moreno vs. Erceg in March 2025. A flyweight bout between former two-time UFC Flyweight Champion Brandon Moreno (also former LFA Flyweight Champion) and Lone’er Kavanagh is scheduled to headline the event.

A true UFC veteran Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera for the first time in his long MMA pro career finds himself in a very unfortunate situation as he is now on 3 fight losing streak. Another defeat could find the Ecuadorian out of the organisation, although his fairly popular name might buy him some time.

Not too long ago Chito fought for the belt in 2024 against then a champion Sean O’Malley, but was not able to create any danger and lost every round, showing great chin and endurance.

Later, the Ecuadorian fighter welcomed former UFC Flyweight class champion Deiveson Figueiredo to the new division and many thought the opponent for the Brazilian would be too big.

However, the God of war showed more versatility in mixing things up and earned unanimous decision victory. The latest Vera’s bout happened in 2025, October as Chito took on the new up and comer Aiemann Zahabi. This time Marlon did look sharper and more aggressive, but for the third straight time the judges raised his opponents hand.

13-1 David Martinez is a fairly new name in the organisation as he has won the UFC contract in 2024 via DWCS. The Mexican made his debut in March, 2025 taking on Saimon Oliveira.

It did not take him long to win the fans as Martinez landed a beautiful counter straight right at the end of the first round and finished the opponent with ground punches.

This finish won him performance of the night award and the matchmakers decided to give him a UFC veteran Rob Font in his only second fight. Both men finally faced each other in September in what was a bit of a disappointing fight.

R.Font landed only 31% of his strikes with Martinez being more active, but incapable of causing any major damage. Eventually, the Mexican earned his second win via unanimous decision 29-28.

With both men being calculated and patient and not holding any significant power we are highly expecting this fight going to the distance.

Vera’s recent performances were truly disappointing and without any real luck while attacking, therefore, a young gun like D.Martinez should implement his dominance and win the fight with judges’ scorecards.

6 ranked and former UFC Bantamweight champion Brandon Moreno remains active as he starts his fighting year early. However, the last time he finished the calendar year with wins was only back in 2021, so he has a lot to prove in order to get into the line for the belt again.

The Mexican started the last year with an impressive win over Steve Erceg who at the time was one of the hottest fighters of the division. Unfortunately, the recent tradition of not being able to get two straight wins continued as Moreno was scheduled to face T.Taira in a highly anticipated fight.

The Japanese fighter surprised everyone by not just getting a win, but finishing Brandon in the second round after showing his superiority on the ground and finishing the opponent with punches from the back. This was a sign of new things coming as now the division’s top 5 has multiple young and promising stars.

Lone’er Kavanagh entered this fight due to an unexpected pull out from Asu Almabayev. The Englishmen signed with the organisation only in 2024 as he was previously a champion in the biggest promotion from the UK – Cage Warriors.

The things for Kavanagh in the new chapter started off really well as he won his two first fights beating J.Ochao and F.Dos Santos by fairly one sided decisions. This earned him a fight against more experienced Charles Johnson who was a huge underdog coming into the bout despite having way more collisions in the UFC.

C.Johnson surprised the new up and comer in the second round with a right hook and finished him on the ground. Surprisingly, this defeat still left Kavanagh in the top 15, but we can only appreciate his heart for stepping into this fight.

There is no reason to believe that B.Moreno does not have it anymore as he only fights the best of the best, losing several bouts by narrow calls from the judges.

The reliable bookies gives us a very decent opportunity to go with the Mexican winnings, as Kavanagh was still far away from fighting the likes of Moreno and got this fight due to the short notice.