Miami ATP Predictions: Alcaraz and Sinner Domination?

Last week I picked Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner to contest their first final of the season, but the former fell one match short. As the ATP Tour heads to Miami for the second of two Masters 1000 events in the United States this month, I’m doubling down on that prediction and tipping another Sincaraz meeting next Sunday.

But where does the value lie if it’s just the favorites dominating in Florida? Read on for a look at my men’s Miami Open best bets and predictions.

As with most ATP events in recent years, there are two clear favorites to win the Miami title in Miami:

• Carlos Alcaraz
• Jannik Sinner 

Of those chasing, these are the men I see most capable of challenging Sincaraz in Florida:

• Jack Draper
• Arthur Fils
• Frances Tiafoe
• Ben Shelton
• Alexander Zverev

Carlos Alcaraz took his first loss of the season last week, and yet online bookies will likely have the Spaniard priced up as the favorite to win in Miami. I’m high on his chances too.

It’s no easy path for the 22-year-old over the coming 12 days, however, as his campaign likely begins with a blockbuster against Brazilian sensation Joao Fonseca.

The up-and-coming teen played out of his skin against Sinner in Indian Wells, and took down back-to-back top-20 players as well. Expect him to give Alcaraz a thorough test, which the world No 1 will ultimately pass.

Elsewhere in Alcaraz’s draw are Sebastian Korda, Karen Khachanov and Draper. None of these will be simple matches, but equally, I expect Alcaraz will rise to the challenge and continue his strong form in 2026. Yes he lost last week, but I put that down to Daniil Medvedev’s brilliance more than anything at Alcaraz’s end. 

There’s little value in tipping Alcaraz to win his quarter, but the same can’t be said for quarter two, where things are wide open. Lorenzo Musetti and Alex de Minaur are the top seeds, neither of which have strong records in Miami.

I like the look of Fils since he returned from injury, however, with the Frenchman making a run to the Indian Wells quarters last week. He’ll be paying good odds to win quarter two as well while the markets catch up to his return.

In the lower half of the draw, I’ve got a rematch of the Indian Wells semi-final between Zverev and Sinner. I don’t see either getting particularly challenged in their quarters. Zverev does have an in-form Medvedev in his, but I think the Russian will flame out before their meeting – he’s been playing a lot of tennis lately.

Should Sinner and Zverev meet again, it’s hard to see how these Miami conditions work any more in the German’s favor than last week’s slower, gritty courts in California. That should be a routine win for Sinner, setting up clash number 17 against Alcaraz.

Right now, I think Alcaraz has too much in his toolbelt to lose to Sinner. His variation and ability to switch up gameplans is unmatched. Combine this with his confidence (leads their head-to-head 10-6 and has won their last four meetings on outdoor hard), and I simply can’t go against Alcaraz here.

If tennis betting is your speed, then here are the markets I’m keeping a close eye on heading into the Miami Open this year:

Tennis bookmakers are yet to price up their outright odds, given the men’s event doesn’t start until Wednesday and there’s still qualifying going on. When they’re released, I’d recommend getting your bets in ASAP as these markets will move once play begins.