Indian Wells WTA Predictions: Sabalenka Revenge?

A busy start to 2026 in women’s tennis continues as the WTA Tour heads to California for the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells this week. With a whole host of title contenders, who will hoist the trophy next Sunday? Read on as I give my women’s Indian Wells predictions.

Here are the three women I see having the best shot at the Indian Wells title over the next fortnight:

• Elena Rybakina
• Jessica Pegula
• Aryna Sabalenka

They have plenty of competition, however, as any of the following could easily make a push too: 

• Iga Swiatek
• Mirra Andreeva
• Coco Gauff
• Elina Svitolina
• Victoria Mboko

Rybakina is the obvious pick for tennis betting to win Indian Wells this year. The Kazakh lifted the trophy here in 2023, and is the form player of the past four months on the WTA Tour.

Not only did she win the year’s first major in Melbourne, but Rybakina is an incredible 10-0 in her last 10 matches against top-10-ranked opposition including two wins each against Sabalenka and Swiatek.

But I’m not so sure that she’ll continue her winning ways here in California. Prior to this run of form, Rybakina had been notoriously mercurial.

Since winning the Australian Open she’s gone off the boil a little, losing to Mboko in Doha and Antonia Ruzic in Dubai. This, combined with the fact that she’s only ever made one deep run at Indian Wells, gives me reason for pause.

Another prime candidate is Pegula. The American has started the year with a hiss and a roar, making semi-finals in Brisbane and Melbourne before winning Dubai a week ago. She’s second in the 2026 WTA Race and will be playing in front of a home crowd.

But again, it’s her track record here that concerns me. This will be her 11th time competing in Indian Wells and she’s just got one quarter-final to show for it.

Instead, I’m high on Sabalenka to bag her first Indian Wells title. The Belarusian choked from up 3-0 in the final set of the Australian Open final last month, and hasn’t played since, skipping the Middle Eastern swing. I expect she’ll arrive here with a chip on her shoulder.

She’s twice made the final and holds a 12-3 record in the desert since 2023. In conditions that suit her power game, and with a point to prove, I’m tipping the world No 1 to go all the way in California. For this, reliable betting platforms offer great odds.