NBL prediction: South East Melbourne Phoenix – Melbourne United (08-11-2025)

John Cain Arena stages the Melbourne derby between a Phoenix side riding a hot scoring stretch and a United team with the deeper resume in this matchup.

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South East Melbourne Phoenix games have surged past typical NBL totals for two weeks straight. Their last five finished 103-102 vs Tasmania, 94-89 vs Perth, 109-86 vs Brisbane, 112-95 vs Sydney and 116-76 vs Illawarra – an average of roughly 190+ points with three home scores of 94, 112 and 116.

Season to date form over the last 10 also points up: Phoenix are averaging 96.3 scored and 89.4 conceded (total 185.7).

Melbourne United’s 10-game profile sits at 96.1 for, 86.6 against (total 182.7), and their two most recent away outings saw them allow 107 at Illawarra and 95 vs Sydney.

The derby itself has leaned open too, with the most recent meeting finishing 103-83, another clear over.

On the side, United carry the longer-term edge in this rivalry at 21 wins to 9 across 30 recorded meetings.

Both clubs are 7-3 across their last ten, but United’s baseline defensive number (86.6 allowed in that run) is the firmer of the two, and their road ledger still includes wins at Adelaide (81-80) and Cairns (94-67) alongside that Illawarra/Sydney swing.

In a high-possession game where the final few trips usually decide it, United’s deeper rotation and late-game execution make the moneyline playable, with the total as the primary angle given the repeated 190+ outcomes in Phoenix fixtures.